Risk of Attritionfrom Master of Science in Pharmacy Degree Program: 15-year Predictive Evaluation

Aim: Evaluation of the selected socio-demographic factors and admission criteria for the MA pharmaceutical studies on the risk of attrition during studies at the Faculty of Pharmacy at the Medical University of Warsaw (MUW). Materials and Methods:1598 students who undertook studies of pharmacy between the years 2000 2009; observation of a full education cycle between October 1st 2000 and March 31st 2015. A model of logistic regression was used to evaluate predictive factors that are of potential influence on the risk of the delayed graduation or attrition. Results: For the model with the outcome variable “timely/delayed graduation” it was found that men bear nearly twice as big a risk of a delayed graduation than women (OR=1.978; P=0.004). It was also observed that students recruited within a new system of admission have almost 10 times greater chances for a delayed graduation as opposed students from the years recruited on the basis of old regulations (OR=10.224; P<0.001). Moreover, for a regression model based on the outcome variable” timely graduation/attrition”, it was also noted that men bear a greater risk of attrition than women (OR=3.621; P<0.001) and that students recruited within a new system as opposed to the old one (OR=23.734; P<0.001). Also, good predictive ability was found for both recruitment criteria when evaluating the risk of attrition (OR for biology and chemistry was 0.974 and 0.958, respectively). Additionally, it was observed the risk of attrition and failure to complete studies was age on entry (OR=1.154; P=0.05). Conclusion: The obtained results of the predictive analysis allow determining a profile of a student who bears a high risk of attrition during studies at the pharmacy department: man who began his studies at least one after completing secondary school and achieved a score in chemistry and biology below the average compared to other candidates accepted to this faculty.