Assessment of predictive value of admission criteria of candidates for pharmaceutical studies – an empirical investigation

Aim: Assessment of predictive value of results of maturity exams applied as admission criteria for pharmaceutical studies at the Medical University of Warsaw (MUW) between 2010–2012. Material and methods: Data of 390 students who began their studies and completed their first year of full-time studies at the pharmaceutical department of MUW. Admission data included: total score gained by a candidate, score concerning biology, chemistry and mathematics. Results in three subjects included in the first year studies curriculum were assessed (Anatomy, Biology with genetics and Pharmaceutical Botany) and a grade point average (GPA) covering this period of time. In order to perform predictive assessment, the analysis of correlation was applied as well as multiple regressions. Results: A model of the function of regression in form of: GPA=0.012∙ (total ranking points) –0.234∙ (gender) explains sufficiently the changeability of results obtained by students after their first year of studies (F=14.984 P<0.000001). The results of analysis point out that indeed men have lower chances of achieving a higher GPA after their first year than women (β=–0.156). Moreover, GPA value prediction after the first year of studies shows that for every additional ranking point achieved during recruitment, the increase in score is on average 0.236. Conclusion: The total of ranking points achieved by a candidate accepted to pharmaceutical studies is of significance when considering educational outcomes obtained after the first year of studies. Mastering the system of accepting candidates to university may lower the failure rate among the students of a difficult and demanding major such as pharmaceutical one.